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HHT: 11CSV

15 Apr 2018

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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20.9%
Newcastle
27.1%
Draw
52.1%
Arsenal

Expected Goals (xG)

1.02

Newcastle

vs
1.71

Arsenal

Markets

BTTS53.9%
Over 0.591.9%
Over 1.577.2%
Over 2.551.3%
Over 3.529.2%

Most Likely Scorelines

1-1
12.9%
1-2
9.7%
0-1
9.6%
0-2
9.6%
0-0
8.1%
2-1
5.8%
1-3
5.5%
0-3
5.5%
1-0
5.1%
2-2
4.9%
2-0
3.4%
2-3
2.8%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).