Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →72.8%
Derby
18.8%
Draw
8.5%
Sheffield Wednesday
Expected Goals (xG)
2.17
Derby
vs
0.61
Sheffield Wednesday
Markets
BTTS41.1%
Over 0.593.2%
Over 1.577.2%
Over 2.552.6%
Over 3.530.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
14.6%
1-0
12.8%
3-0
10.6%
2-1
8.9%
1-1
8.8%
0-0
6.8%
3-1
6.5%
4-0
5.7%
4-1
3.5%
0-1
3.2%
2-2
2.7%
1-2
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).