Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →45.6%
Notts County
24.7%
Draw
29.8%
Chesterfield
Expected Goals (xG)
1.50
Notts County
vs
1.16
Chesterfield
Markets
BTTS52.7%
Over 0.593.4%
Over 1.573.8%
Over 2.549.5%
Over 3.527.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.7%
1-0
11.0%
2-1
9.1%
0-1
8.6%
2-0
7.9%
1-2
7.0%
0-0
6.6%
2-2
5.3%
0-2
4.7%
3-1
4.6%
3-0
3.9%
1-3
2.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).