Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →36.6%
Burgos
27.8%
Draw
35.6%
Castellon
Expected Goals (xG)
1.18
Burgos
vs
1.16
Castellon
Markets
BTTS47.4%
Over 0.590.5%
Over 1.567.7%
Over 2.541.5%
Over 3.520.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.1%
1-0
11.5%
0-1
11.3%
0-0
9.5%
2-1
7.8%
1-2
7.6%
2-0
6.7%
0-2
6.5%
2-2
4.5%
3-1
3.1%
1-3
3.0%
3-0
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).