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AHT: 01CSV

30 Apr 2016

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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19.1%
Newport County
22.2%
Draw
58.7%
Notts County

Expected Goals (xG)

0.89

Newport County

vs
1.78

Notts County

Markets

BTTS48.7%
Over 0.593.5%
Over 1.574.2%
Over 2.550.0%
Over 3.528.0%

Most Likely Scorelines

0-1
12.7%
0-2
10.9%
1-1
10.5%
1-2
9.8%
1-0
6.6%
0-3
6.5%
0-0
6.5%
1-3
5.8%
2-1
4.9%
2-2
4.4%
0-4
2.9%
2-0
2.8%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).