Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →28.1%
Nott'm Forest
31.2%
Draw
40.7%
Aston Villa
Expected Goals (xG)
1.06
Nott'm Forest
vs
1.31
Aston Villa
Markets
BTTS49.5%
Over 0.588.9%
Over 1.570.3%
Over 2.542.3%
Over 3.521.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.8%
0-0
11.1%
0-1
10.5%
1-2
8.5%
0-2
8.1%
1-0
8.1%
2-1
6.8%
2-0
5.2%
2-2
4.5%
1-3
3.7%
0-3
3.5%
3-1
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).