Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.5%
Bury
22.4%
Draw
37.1%
St Pauli
Expected Goals (xG)
1.69
Bury
vs
1.61
St Pauli
Markets
BTTS65.0%
Over 0.596.6%
Over 1.583.9%
Over 2.564.1%
Over 3.542.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
9.7%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
8.1%
2-2
6.8%
1-0
6.5%
0-1
6.2%
2-0
5.3%
3-1
4.8%
0-2
4.8%
1-3
4.3%
3-2
3.9%
2-3
3.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).