Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →52.3%
Nacional
28.8%
Draw
19.0%
Tondela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.44
Nacional
vs
0.77
Tondela
Markets
BTTS41.9%
Over 0.588.1%
Over 1.565.8%
Over 2.538.0%
Over 3.518.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.9%
1-1
13.1%
0-0
11.9%
2-0
11.4%
2-1
8.8%
0-1
7.5%
3-0
5.5%
1-2
4.7%
3-1
4.2%
2-2
3.4%
0-2
3.2%
4-0
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).