Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →68.5%
Plymouth
17.7%
Draw
13.8%
Shrewsbury
Expected Goals (xG)
2.13
Plymouth
vs
0.81
Shrewsbury
Markets
BTTS48.0%
Over 0.595.4%
Over 1.578.3%
Over 2.556.1%
Over 3.533.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.1%
2-0
12.0%
2-1
9.7%
3-0
8.5%
1-1
8.4%
3-1
6.9%
0-1
5.1%
0-0
4.6%
4-0
4.5%
2-2
3.9%
1-2
3.7%
4-1
3.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).