Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →83.7%
Benfica
12.0%
Draw
4.3%
Casa Pia
Expected Goals (xG)
2.82
Benfica
vs
0.55
Casa Pia
Markets
BTTS40.1%
Over 0.596.2%
Over 1.585.4%
Over 2.565.5%
Over 3.543.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
13.7%
3-0
12.9%
1-0
9.3%
4-0
9.1%
2-1
7.5%
3-1
7.1%
1-1
5.7%
5-0
5.1%
4-1
5.0%
0-0
3.8%
5-1
2.8%
2-2
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).