Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →62.7%
Arsenal
22.8%
Draw
14.4%
Man United
Expected Goals (xG)
2.08
Arsenal
vs
0.92
Man United
Markets
BTTS54.0%
Over 0.593.7%
Over 1.581.4%
Over 2.557.6%
Over 3.535.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.9%
2-0
10.8%
2-1
9.9%
1-0
9.0%
3-0
7.4%
3-1
6.9%
0-0
6.3%
2-2
4.6%
1-2
4.4%
4-0
3.9%
4-1
3.6%
0-1
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).