Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →57.5%
Bury
19.3%
Draw
23.2%
Man United
Expected Goals (xG)
2.28
Bury
vs
1.40
Man United
Markets
BTTS67.3%
Over 0.597.7%
Over 1.587.9%
Over 2.571.0%
Over 3.550.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
9.2%
1-1
7.8%
3-1
7.0%
2-0
6.6%
2-2
6.4%
1-0
6.0%
1-2
5.6%
3-0
5.0%
3-2
4.9%
4-1
4.0%
0-1
3.8%
2-3
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).