Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.8%
Moreirense
24.5%
Draw
25.7%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
1.83
Moreirense
vs
1.27
Arouca
Markets
BTTS61.2%
Over 0.594.7%
Over 1.582.4%
Over 2.559.9%
Over 3.537.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.3%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
7.5%
1-0
7.4%
1-2
6.6%
2-2
6.1%
3-1
5.9%
0-0
5.3%
0-1
4.9%
3-0
4.6%
3-2
3.7%
0-2
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).