Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →16.6%
Lugo
26.1%
Draw
57.3%
Malaga
Expected Goals (xG)
0.66
Lugo
vs
1.49
Malaga
Markets
BTTS37.4%
Over 0.588.5%
Over 1.563.2%
Over 2.536.4%
Over 3.517.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
17.4%
0-2
12.9%
0-0
11.5%
1-1
11.4%
1-2
8.5%
1-0
7.8%
0-3
6.4%
1-3
4.2%
2-1
3.8%
2-2
2.8%
2-0
2.6%
0-4
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).