Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →39.6%
Swansea
31.9%
Draw
28.5%
Stoke
Expected Goals (xG)
1.16
Swansea
vs
0.94
Stoke
Markets
BTTS43.0%
Over 0.586.7%
Over 1.563.2%
Over 2.535.1%
Over 3.516.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.5%
0-0
13.3%
1-0
13.0%
0-1
10.4%
2-0
8.2%
2-1
7.7%
1-2
6.3%
0-2
5.4%
2-2
3.7%
3-0
3.2%
3-1
3.0%
1-3
2.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).