Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →89.1%
Chelsea
6.4%
Draw
4.5%
Port Vale
Expected Goals (xG)
4.59
Chelsea
vs
1.22
Port Vale
Markets
BTTS69.8%
Over 0.599.8%
Over 1.597.9%
Over 2.592.9%
Over 3.583.0%
Most Likely Scorelines
4-1
6.8%
5-1
6.3%
3-1
5.9%
4-0
5.6%
5-0
5.1%
3-0
4.9%
4-2
4.2%
2-1
3.9%
5-2
3.8%
3-2
3.6%
2-0
3.2%
2-2
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).