Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →43.2%
Portimonense
23.3%
Draw
33.5%
Estrela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.59
Portimonense
vs
1.37
Estrela
Markets
BTTS58.9%
Over 0.595.3%
Over 1.579.0%
Over 2.556.8%
Over 3.534.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
10.8%
2-1
9.0%
1-0
8.7%
1-2
7.7%
0-1
7.6%
2-0
6.5%
2-2
6.2%
0-2
4.9%
3-1
4.8%
0-0
4.7%
1-3
3.5%
3-0
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).