Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →87.9%
Benfica
9.1%
Draw
3.0%
Estrela
Expected Goals (xG)
3.18
Benfica
vs
0.51
Estrela
Markets
BTTS38.8%
Over 0.597.3%
Over 1.588.6%
Over 2.571.3%
Over 3.550.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
3-0
13.3%
2-0
12.6%
4-0
10.6%
1-0
7.7%
3-1
6.9%
5-0
6.7%
2-1
6.5%
4-1
5.5%
1-1
4.3%
5-1
3.5%
0-0
2.7%
3-2
1.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).