Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.8%
Arouca
25.7%
Draw
33.6%
Moreirense
Expected Goals (xG)
1.61
Arouca
vs
1.44
Moreirense
Markets
BTTS62.0%
Over 0.594.4%
Over 1.581.7%
Over 2.558.9%
Over 3.536.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.8%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
7.9%
1-0
6.7%
2-2
6.4%
2-0
6.1%
0-1
6.0%
0-0
5.6%
0-2
4.9%
3-1
4.7%
1-3
3.8%
3-2
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).