Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →32.3%
Tondela
32.4%
Draw
35.3%
Moreirense
Expected Goals (xG)
0.98
Tondela
vs
1.03
Moreirense
Markets
BTTS40.9%
Over 0.585.7%
Over 1.560.5%
Over 2.532.6%
Over 3.514.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.4%
0-0
14.3%
0-1
13.0%
1-0
12.3%
0-2
7.1%
1-2
7.0%
2-1
6.6%
2-0
6.4%
2-2
3.4%
0-3
2.5%
1-3
2.4%
3-1
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).