Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →33.7%
Napoli
28.1%
Draw
38.2%
Milan
Expected Goals (xG)
1.09
Napoli
vs
1.18
Milan
Markets
BTTS45.7%
Over 0.589.9%
Over 1.565.9%
Over 2.539.5%
Over 3.519.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.1%
0-1
12.4%
1-0
11.5%
0-0
10.1%
1-2
7.8%
2-1
7.2%
0-2
7.2%
2-0
6.1%
2-2
4.3%
1-3
3.1%
0-3
2.8%
3-1
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).