Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →87.3%
Derby
9.5%
Draw
3.2%
Forest Green
Expected Goals (xG)
2.69
Derby
vs
0.33
Forest Green
Markets
BTTS25.6%
Over 0.595.5%
Over 1.580.0%
Over 2.558.1%
Over 3.535.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
17.7%
3-0
15.9%
1-0
13.5%
4-0
10.7%
2-1
5.8%
5-0
5.8%
3-1
5.2%
0-0
4.5%
1-1
3.9%
4-1
3.5%
0-1
2.0%
5-1
1.9%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).