Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →68.7%
Bournemouth
17.4%
Draw
13.9%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
2.82
Bournemouth
vs
1.27
Luton
Markets
BTTS68.5%
Over 0.597.5%
Over 1.592.3%
Over 2.577.5%
Over 3.558.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
8.5%
3-1
7.9%
1-1
6.8%
2-0
6.6%
3-0
6.2%
4-1
5.6%
2-2
5.4%
3-2
5.1%
4-0
4.4%
1-0
3.9%
1-2
3.8%
4-2
3.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).