Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →49.5%
Arouca
21.9%
Draw
28.6%
Estrela
Expected Goals (xG)
1.83
Arouca
vs
1.34
Estrela
Markets
BTTS61.6%
Over 0.596.3%
Over 1.582.1%
Over 2.561.5%
Over 3.539.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
9.8%
2-1
9.4%
1-0
8.1%
2-0
7.0%
1-2
6.9%
2-2
6.3%
0-1
6.1%
3-1
5.8%
3-0
4.3%
3-2
3.9%
0-2
3.8%
0-0
3.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).