Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →27.9%
Alcorcon
31.6%
Draw
40.4%
Vallecano
Expected Goals (xG)
0.81
Alcorcon
vs
1.05
Vallecano
Markets
BTTS36.0%
Over 0.584.6%
Over 1.555.4%
Over 2.528.6%
Over 3.511.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
16.4%
0-0
15.4%
1-1
13.1%
1-0
12.8%
0-2
8.5%
1-2
6.9%
2-1
5.4%
2-0
5.2%
0-3
3.0%
2-2
2.8%
1-3
2.4%
3-1
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).