Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →12.1%
Carlisle
18.3%
Draw
69.6%
Derby
Expected Goals (xG)
0.66
Carlisle
vs
1.99
Derby
Markets
BTTS40.9%
Over 0.593.7%
Over 1.573.4%
Over 2.549.4%
Over 3.527.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
14.9%
0-2
14.0%
0-3
9.3%
1-2
9.2%
1-1
8.5%
0-0
6.3%
1-3
6.1%
1-0
5.4%
0-4
4.6%
2-1
3.1%
1-4
3.0%
2-2
3.0%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).