Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →56.5%
Burton
22.9%
Draw
20.5%
Shrewsbury
Expected Goals (xG)
1.61
Burton
vs
0.84
Shrewsbury
Markets
BTTS44.6%
Over 0.592.4%
Over 1.569.3%
Over 2.544.4%
Over 3.523.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
14.8%
2-0
11.2%
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.4%
0-1
8.2%
0-0
7.6%
3-0
6.0%
3-1
5.0%
1-2
4.9%
2-2
4.0%
0-2
3.0%
4-0
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).