Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.8%
Moreirense
25.9%
Draw
29.3%
Nacional
Expected Goals (xG)
1.38
Moreirense
vs
1.06
Nacional
Markets
BTTS48.2%
Over 0.591.8%
Over 1.569.3%
Over 2.543.9%
Over 3.522.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
12.7%
1-1
12.2%
0-1
9.8%
2-1
8.8%
2-0
8.3%
0-0
8.2%
1-2
6.7%
0-2
4.9%
2-2
4.6%
3-1
4.0%
3-0
3.8%
1-3
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).