Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →70.9%
Brentford
16.5%
Draw
12.6%
Luton
Expected Goals (xG)
2.93
Brentford
vs
1.25
Luton
Markets
BTTS68.2%
Over 0.597.7%
Over 1.592.8%
Over 2.578.6%
Over 3.559.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
8.2%
3-1
8.0%
2-0
6.6%
3-0
6.4%
1-1
6.4%
4-1
5.9%
2-2
5.1%
3-2
5.0%
4-0
4.7%
1-0
3.7%
4-2
3.7%
1-2
3.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).