Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →63.2%
Estoril
18.0%
Draw
18.8%
Arouca
Expected Goals (xG)
2.70
Estoril
vs
1.47
Arouca
Markets
BTTS72.2%
Over 0.598.1%
Over 1.592.4%
Over 2.578.6%
Over 3.559.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
8.3%
3-1
7.5%
1-1
6.5%
2-2
6.1%
2-0
5.6%
3-2
5.5%
3-0
5.1%
4-1
5.0%
1-2
4.5%
1-0
3.8%
4-2
3.7%
4-0
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).