Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →8.8%
Arouca
18.8%
Draw
72.4%
Porto
Expected Goals (xG)
0.64
Arouca
vs
2.19
Porto
Markets
BTTS42.6%
Over 0.593.5%
Over 1.578.0%
Over 2.553.8%
Over 3.531.5%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
14.2%
0-1
12.3%
0-3
10.3%
1-2
9.1%
1-1
8.9%
1-3
6.6%
0-0
6.5%
0-4
5.7%
1-4
3.6%
1-0
3.1%
2-2
2.9%
2-1
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).