Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →15.2%
Alaves
25.0%
Draw
59.9%
Real Madrid
Expected Goals (xG)
0.70
Alaves
vs
1.64
Real Madrid
Markets
BTTS40.8%
Over 0.590.0%
Over 1.568.2%
Over 2.541.5%
Over 3.520.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
15.5%
0-2
13.0%
1-1
11.4%
0-0
10.0%
1-2
9.1%
0-3
7.1%
1-0
6.3%
1-3
5.0%
2-1
3.8%
2-2
3.2%
0-4
2.9%
2-0
2.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).