Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →71.6%
Dortmund
17.7%
Draw
10.7%
M'gladbach
Expected Goals (xG)
2.45
Dortmund
vs
0.87
M'gladbach
Markets
BTTS53.5%
Over 0.595.8%
Over 1.584.9%
Over 2.564.4%
Over 3.542.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-0
10.9%
2-1
9.4%
3-0
8.9%
1-0
8.3%
1-1
8.3%
3-1
7.7%
4-0
5.5%
4-1
4.7%
0-0
4.2%
2-2
4.1%
3-2
3.3%
1-2
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).