Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →52.7%
Manchester City
26.3%
Draw
21.0%
Brighton
Expected Goals (xG)
1.78
Manchester City
vs
1.06
Brighton
Markets
BTTS55.9%
Over 0.592.6%
Over 1.579.1%
Over 2.554.0%
Over 3.531.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.5%
2-1
9.8%
2-0
9.2%
1-0
8.9%
0-0
7.4%
1-2
5.8%
3-1
5.8%
3-0
5.5%
2-2
5.2%
0-1
4.7%
0-2
3.3%
3-2
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).