Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →7.1%
Tondela
16.9%
Draw
76.0%
Benfica
Expected Goals (xG)
0.44
Tondela
vs
2.06
Benfica
Markets
BTTS30.9%
Over 0.592.2%
Over 1.571.0%
Over 2.545.7%
Over 3.524.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-2
17.4%
0-1
17.2%
0-3
11.9%
0-0
7.8%
1-2
7.7%
1-1
7.1%
0-4
6.2%
1-3
5.3%
1-0
3.9%
1-4
2.7%
0-5
2.5%
2-2
1.7%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).