Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →26.0%
Carlisle
26.6%
Draw
47.4%
Stevenage
Expected Goals (xG)
0.86
Carlisle
vs
1.28
Stevenage
Markets
BTTS40.5%
Over 0.589.3%
Over 1.562.0%
Over 2.536.1%
Over 3.516.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
0-1
16.2%
1-1
11.9%
1-0
11.2%
0-0
10.7%
0-2
9.7%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
5.6%
2-0
4.3%
0-3
4.1%
2-2
3.6%
1-3
3.5%
3-1
1.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).