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28 Dec 2025 · 20:30

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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91.2%
Bromsgrove Sporting
7.0%
Draw
1.7%
Rio Ave

Expected Goals (xG)

3.36

Bromsgrove Sporting

vs
0.39

Rio Ave

Markets

BTTS31.2%
Over 0.597.4%
Over 1.589.1%
Over 2.572.3%
Over 3.551.6%

Most Likely Scorelines

3-0
14.9%
2-0
13.3%
4-0
12.5%
5-0
8.4%
1-0
7.7%
3-1
5.8%
2-1
5.2%
4-1
4.9%
1-1
3.3%
5-1
3.3%
0-0
2.6%
3-2
1.1%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).