Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →37.9%
Newport County
24.2%
Draw
37.9%
Cheltenham
Expected Goals (xG)
1.41
Newport County
vs
1.41
Cheltenham
Markets
BTTS56.6%
Over 0.594.5%
Over 1.576.7%
Over 2.553.5%
Over 3.531.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
11.4%
0-1
8.9%
1-0
8.9%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
8.4%
0-2
5.9%
2-0
5.9%
2-2
5.9%
0-0
5.5%
1-3
3.9%
3-1
3.9%
0-3
2.8%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).