Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.3%
Vitória Guimarães
31.0%
Draw
20.6%
Farense
Expected Goals (xG)
1.28
Vitória Guimarães
vs
0.74
Farense
Markets
BTTS38.9%
Over 0.585.9%
Over 1.561.2%
Over 2.533.1%
Over 3.514.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.9%
0-0
14.1%
1-1
13.5%
2-0
10.8%
0-1
8.8%
2-1
8.1%
1-2
4.7%
3-0
4.6%
0-2
3.6%
3-1
3.5%
2-2
3.0%
4-0
1.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).