Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →43.9%
Moreirense
28.3%
Draw
27.8%
Nacional
Expected Goals (xG)
1.43
Moreirense
vs
1.09
Nacional
Markets
BTTS51.5%
Over 0.591.0%
Over 1.572.7%
Over 2.546.2%
Over 3.524.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.5%
1-0
10.5%
0-0
9.0%
2-1
9.0%
2-0
8.2%
0-1
7.8%
1-2
6.8%
2-2
4.9%
0-2
4.8%
3-1
4.3%
3-0
3.9%
1-3
2.5%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).