Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →56.6%
Modena
26.8%
Draw
16.6%
Cesena
Expected Goals (xG)
1.63
Modena
vs
0.78
Cesena
Markets
BTTS44.6%
Over 0.589.9%
Over 1.570.5%
Over 2.543.2%
Over 3.522.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.5%
1-1
12.5%
2-0
12.0%
0-0
10.1%
2-1
9.3%
3-0
6.5%
0-1
5.9%
3-1
5.1%
1-2
4.4%
2-2
3.6%
0-2
2.7%
4-0
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).