Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →40.5%
Aston Villa
27.8%
Draw
31.7%
Man United
Expected Goals (xG)
1.55
Aston Villa
vs
1.35
Man United
Markets
BTTS60.0%
Over 0.592.9%
Over 1.580.1%
Over 2.555.4%
Over 3.533.1%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.1%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.8%
0-0
7.1%
1-0
6.9%
2-0
6.6%
2-2
6.0%
0-1
5.8%
0-2
5.0%
3-1
4.6%
1-3
3.5%
3-0
3.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).