Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.2%
Shrewsbury
24.3%
Draw
27.5%
Carlisle
Expected Goals (xG)
1.45
Shrewsbury
vs
1.02
Carlisle
Markets
BTTS47.9%
Over 0.592.6%
Over 1.569.7%
Over 2.544.9%
Over 3.523.7%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
13.3%
1-1
11.4%
0-1
9.6%
2-1
9.1%
2-0
8.9%
0-0
7.4%
1-2
6.4%
2-2
4.6%
3-1
4.4%
0-2
4.4%
3-0
4.3%
3-2
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).