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03 Aug 2024 · 14:00

Dixon-Coles Prediction

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86.2%
Roma
9.8%
Draw
4.0%
North Leigh

Expected Goals (xG)

2.91

Roma

vs
0.49

North Leigh

Markets

BTTS36.4%
Over 0.596.8%
Over 1.585.1%
Over 2.566.0%
Over 3.544.1%

Most Likely Scorelines

2-0
14.2%
3-0
13.7%
4-0
10.0%
1-0
9.9%
2-1
6.9%
3-1
6.7%
5-0
5.8%
4-1
4.9%
1-1
4.6%
0-0
3.2%
5-1
2.8%
0-1
1.8%

Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).