Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →48.5%
Vallecano
26.8%
Draw
24.7%
Elche
Expected Goals (xG)
1.48
Vallecano
vs
0.98
Elche
Markets
BTTS48.3%
Over 0.591.1%
Over 1.570.5%
Over 2.544.4%
Over 3.523.2%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
12.7%
1-0
12.5%
2-0
9.4%
2-1
9.2%
0-0
8.9%
0-1
8.1%
1-2
6.0%
3-0
4.6%
3-1
4.5%
2-2
4.5%
0-2
4.1%
3-2
2.2%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).