Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →64.0%
Carlisle
18.7%
Draw
17.3%
Aldershot
Expected Goals (xG)
2.58
Carlisle
vs
1.32
Aldershot
Markets
BTTS68.4%
Over 0.597.4%
Over 1.590.7%
Over 2.574.8%
Over 3.554.8%
Most Likely Scorelines
2-1
8.9%
3-1
7.6%
1-1
7.5%
2-0
6.7%
2-2
5.9%
3-0
5.8%
3-2
5.1%
4-1
4.9%
1-0
4.6%
1-2
4.5%
4-0
3.7%
4-2
3.3%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).