Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →58.7%
Birmingham
22.8%
Draw
18.5%
Lincoln
Expected Goals (xG)
1.62
Birmingham
vs
0.77
Lincoln
Markets
BTTS42.0%
Over 0.591.8%
Over 1.568.0%
Over 2.542.7%
Over 3.521.9%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-0
15.8%
2-0
12.1%
1-1
10.5%
2-1
9.3%
0-0
8.2%
0-1
8.0%
3-0
6.5%
3-1
5.0%
1-2
4.4%
2-2
3.6%
0-2
2.7%
4-0
2.6%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).