Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →44.1%
Vitória Guimarães
28.4%
Draw
27.5%
Nacional
Expected Goals (xG)
1.43
Vitória Guimarães
vs
1.08
Nacional
Markets
BTTS51.3%
Over 0.590.9%
Over 1.572.5%
Over 2.546.0%
Over 3.524.6%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.5%
1-0
10.6%
0-0
9.1%
2-1
9.0%
2-0
8.3%
0-1
7.8%
1-2
6.8%
2-2
4.9%
0-2
4.7%
3-1
4.3%
3-0
4.0%
1-3
2.4%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).