Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →29.8%
Tondela
31.8%
Draw
38.4%
Nacional
Expected Goals (xG)
0.97
Tondela
vs
1.14
Nacional
Markets
BTTS43.3%
Over 0.586.9%
Over 1.563.4%
Over 2.535.4%
Over 3.516.4%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
14.5%
0-0
13.1%
0-1
12.7%
1-0
10.7%
0-2
7.9%
1-2
7.6%
2-1
6.5%
2-0
5.7%
2-2
3.7%
0-3
3.0%
1-3
2.9%
3-1
2.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).