Dixon-Coles Prediction
View all models →29.7%
Brighton
28.4%
Draw
41.9%
Chelsea
Expected Goals (xG)
1.25
Brighton
vs
1.52
Chelsea
Markets
BTTS57.5%
Over 0.592.1%
Over 1.578.1%
Over 2.552.5%
Over 3.530.3%
Most Likely Scorelines
1-1
13.5%
1-2
9.0%
0-0
7.9%
0-1
7.8%
2-1
7.5%
0-2
7.2%
1-0
6.2%
2-2
5.7%
2-0
4.9%
1-3
4.6%
0-3
3.7%
3-1
3.1%
Probabilities from a Dixon-Coles Poisson model fitted on results since 2020 with exponential time-weighting (ξ=0.005, half-life ≈ 139 days).